Goldman Sachs Research has raised its forecast for the global humanoid robot market to $38 billion by 2035, with shipments reaching 1.4 million units—a sixfold jump from their earlier $6 billion estimate.1 This revision reflects accelerating commercialization fueled by AI progress and persistent labor shortages.14 While a solid projection, it appears conservative when stacked against bolder estimates from peers, suggesting the special instruction’s view that Goldman Sachs underestimates the true potential.
Revised Market Outlook from Goldman Sachs
The bank’s analysts point to rapid cost declines, with humanoid robot manufacturing expenses dropping 40% between 2023 and 2024.5 Shipments could hit 50,000 to 100,000 units globally in 2026, as unit economics improve to $15,000–$20,000 per robot.6 In a blue-sky scenario, the addressable market might climb as high as $154 billion by 2035.4
Humanoid robots like Tesla’s Optimus and Boston Dynamics’ Atlas are shifting from research prototypes to commercial products.1 These developments underscore the sector’s momentum, driven by falling prices and maturing technology. Economic viability in factories looks feasible between 2025 and 2028, with consumer adoption following in 2030–2035.4
Production Targets from Key Players
Tesla aims to produce 5,000 Optimus units in 2025, scaling to 100,000 by 2026.2 BYD plans for 1,500 humanoid units next year, ramping up to 20,000 in 2026, while Agibot targets 5,000 units in 2025.2 Agility Robotics operates a factory capable of 10,000 Digit robots annually, and Unitree has begun consumer sales through JD.com.2
Bank of America forecasts material costs falling from $35,000 in 2025 to $13,000–$17,000 per unit over the next decade.5 Mainstream adoption could accelerate in the 2026–2028 timeframe.2 These aggressive timelines highlight industry confidence despite technical hurdles.
Technical Foundations and Challenges
Rod ends serve as critical components in humanoid robot joints, enabling precise motion.1 Broader advances are needed in AI, product design, use cases, technology, affordability, and public acceptance to drive widespread deployment.4 Progress here will determine if forecasts materialize on schedule.
UBS projects 2 million humanoids in workplaces by 2035, generating a $30–$50 billion market, expanding to 300 million units and $1.4–$1.7 trillion by 2050.5 Such scale requires robust supply chains and reliable hardware. Commercialization efforts are gaining traction as early as late 2025.6
Applications Across Industries
Humanoids could address 4% of the projected U.S. manufacturing labor shortage by 2030 and 2% of global elderly care demand by 2035.4 Initial uses focus on warehouse management, logistics, and strenuous tasks like carrying goods up stairs.4 Consumer applications may include elderly care, disability assistance, cleaning, maintenance, meal preparation, and laundry.5
Labor shortages and AI advancements form the core drivers for this shift.1 Businesses stand to gain from tireless workers handling repetitive or hazardous jobs. Early deployments will test real-world reliability before broader rollout.
Comparisons with Other Analysts
Morgan Stanley sees a $5 trillion humanoid maket by 2050 with over 1 billion units, while Citigroup projects 648 million units and $7 trillion in the same period.3 These long-term views dwarf Goldman’s near-term figure, implying exponential growth post-2035. Discrepancies arise mainly in timelines and unit costs.
Paths Forward / Looking Ahead
Goldman Sachs’ baseline forecast captures near-term realism, but optimistic scenarios and competitor projections suggest far greater upside. Achieving $38 billion by 2035 hinges on cost reductions and production ramps from leaders like Tesla and BYD, alongside AI maturation.25 Factory viability arrives soon, paving the way for labor market transformations that could exceed expectations if adoption accelerates as planned for 2026–2028.24
Longer horizons reveal trillion-dollar potentials, underscoring why Goldman’s estimate feels understated today. Public acceptance and regulatory frameworks will shape rollout speeds, but technical momentum points to humanoid robots reshaping industries profoundly. Investors and firms should prepare for a market that burgeons beyond conservative models, driven by unrelenting innovation.3
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